SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Dinamo Zagreb win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
56.09% ( 0.04) | 24.35% ( -0) | 19.56% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 47.02% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.36% ( -0.02) | 53.64% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.86% ( -0.02) | 75.13% ( 0.02) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.99% ( 0.01) | 19.01% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.43% ( 0.01) | 50.57% ( -0.01) |
| Dinamo Zagreb Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.05% ( -0.05) | 41.95% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.61% ( -0.05) | 78.39% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
| 1-0 @ 13.23% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.99% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.55% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.52% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 56.08% | 1-1 @ 11.5% 0-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.73% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 6.93% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 19.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 66 | 45 | 21 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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