SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 60.31%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 20.79% and a draw had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.28%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (5.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
60.31% ( -0.94) | 18.89% ( 0.1) | 20.79% ( 0.84) |
| Both teams to score 67.91% ( 1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.75% ( 0.77) | 27.25% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.19% ( 0.96) | 47.8% ( -0.96) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.98% ( 0.01) | 9.02% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.28% ( 0.03) | 30.72% ( -0.03) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.64% ( 1.17) | 25.36% ( -1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.85% ( 1.58) | 60.15% ( -1.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.31)1-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.26)3-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 5% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 2.11% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.07)5-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.08)Other @ 4.48% Total : 60.31% | 1-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.54% Total : 18.89% | 1-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.14% Total : 20.79% |
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