SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 52.36%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.4%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
52.36% ( -0.09) | 21.1% ( 0.02) | 26.53% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 66.94% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.49% ( -0.04) | 31.51% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.01% ( -0.05) | 52.99% ( 0.05) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.58% ( -0.04) | 12.41% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.69% ( -0.09) | 38.31% ( 0.09) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( 0.03) | 23.57% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.36% ( 0.04) | 57.64% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.11% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.63% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.16% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 52.36% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.23% Other @ 0.48% Total : 21.1% | 1-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.53% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
