SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 70.91%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 12.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 3-0 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
70.91% ( -2.53) | 16.71% ( 1.31) | 12.37% ( 1.22) |
| Both teams to score 55.97% ( -1.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.46% ( -3.19) | 33.54% ( 3.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.66% ( -3.73) | 55.34% ( 3.73) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.61% ( -1.29) | 8.38% ( 1.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.83% ( -3.3) | 29.17% ( 3.29) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.09% ( -0.26) | 38.91% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.36% ( -0.25) | 75.63% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-0 @ 10.02% ( 0.42) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.34)3-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.18)1-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.83)3-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.23)4-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.47)4-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.48)3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.14)5-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.42)5-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.41)4-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.24)5-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.21)6-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.25)6-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.25)Other @ 3.17% Total : 70.91% | 1-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.73) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.52)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.19% Total : 16.71% | 1-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.32) 0-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.47)0-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.21)2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.37% |
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