Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.17) 
-0.16) 
