Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 48.47%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 25.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 0-1 (8.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.
-0.2) 
0.21) 
