Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Gamba Osaka had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Gamba Osaka win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.17) 
0.01) 
