Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 39.61%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 0-1 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
-0.04) 
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