Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
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