Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 36.35%. A win for Jubilo Iwata had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Jubilo Iwata win was 1-0 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Jubilo Iwata	Draw	Sagan Tosu
35.97% ( 0.1)	27.68% ( 0.01)	36.35% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 48.78% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.96% (

-0.02)

57.04% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.07% (

-0.02)

77.93% (

0.02)

Jubilo Iwata Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.72% (

0.05)

30.28% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.55% (

0.06)

66.45% (

-0.06)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.96% (

-0.08)

30.04% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.83% (

-0.09)

66.17% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Jubilo Iwata 35.96%

Sagan Tosu 36.34%

Draw 27.67%

Jubilo Iwata	Draw	Sagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.81% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.96%	1-1 @ 13.06% 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0) Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.67%	0-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.86% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 36.34%