Arguably the biggest underdog story in MLS Cup playoff history, the New York Red Bulls can claim their first league trophy when they travel to Dignity Health Sports Park on Saturday to face the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Last Saturday, the Galaxy punched their ticket into the showcase event with a 1-0 victory over the Seattle Sounders, while the Red Bulls continued their magical run, defeating Orlando City by that same score.
Match preview
For the first time in a decade, the Galaxy will play for the MLS Cup, with the most decorated club in league history regarding domestic trophies seeking to lift this one for a sixth time.
Saturday will mark the 10th time they reach the cup final in their 29-year history, with LA winning all three of their previous matches at this stage in Carson.
For a few years, Greg Vanney has been looking to find the right approach to get this team going, and their short passes out of the back this season have worked wonders, as they boast the fourth-highest pass competition rate in the defensive third (85.9%).
It has been a historic playoff run for this edition of the Galaxy offensively, netting 16 goals in four games, one fewer than the post-season record set by a Greg Vanney-led Toronto side in 2016.
No team in the regular season created as many quality scoring opportunities as the Galaxy, who led the league with 57.5 non-penalty expected goals, according to FBref's data.
They have outscored their three playoff opponents this season at Dignity Health Sports Park by a combined margin of 12-2, claiming 16 triumphs at that venue this year across all competitions.
During the regular season, they went unbeaten against Eastern Conference opposition at home, winning two of those three contests while conceding just one goal (1-1 draw versus Inter Miami).
Having only claimed one victory in their final 11 matches across all competitions, virtually everyone had written the New York Red Bulls off before the post-season began.
Miraculously, they have defied all the odds, sweeping their opening round series against the reigning MLS Cup champions, the Columbus Crew, before eliminating their arch-rivals, New York City FC and Orlando City.
With their victory last weekend, they became the lowest-seeded team ever to reach the MLS Cup final (seventh), with Sandro Schwarz becoming the 12th head coach in league history to make the final in his first season at the helm.
All year, the Red Bulls have been happy to let the opposition have the ball, averaging just 44.5% possession during the regular season and fewer than 40% in each of their playoff fixtures.
When they win possession, it has usually been in advantageous positions, while they have made the most of those opportunities, scoring on two of their three targeted efforts in the Eastern Conference semi-finals versus NYCFC and netting on their only shot on goal last Saturday.
The Red Bulls love to pass the ball forward as much as possible, ranking fifth in the regular season for average vertical passing distance (7.23 yards), relying on their attacking players to pressure opposing backlines, all of which has enabled them to get to within a game of their first MLS Cup.
New York have won two of their last three meetings versus the Galaxy and claimed points in two of their last three visits to Dignity Health Sports Park.
However, their only previous MLS Cup final appearance, which took place in Carson, saw them suffer a 3-1 defeat to the Columbus Crew in 2008 when that venue was known as the Home Depot Center.
Team News
The Galaxy victory last weekend came at a huge cost, with the MLS regular-season leader for touches and their leader in assists, Riqui Puig, suffering a torn ACL and being ruled out of this match.
Meanwhile, Marco Reus will be questionable after being taken off at the half of their Western Conference final due to a knock, while Martin Caceres will not be available because of an Achilles injury.
Dejan Joveljic scored five minutes from the end to see off the Sounders, with John McCarthy making four stops to collect his second clean sheet of the 2024 playoffs.
For the Red Bulls, Felipe Carballo will be a question mark after missing the previous encounter due to a foot issue, while Roald Mitchell and Kyle Duncan are out because of knee injuries.
In Carballo's absence last week, Schwarz inserted Peter Stroud into the lineup, the only change to their starting 11 against Orlando City.
Andres Reyes scored two minutes into the second half of their previous encounter, with Carlos Coronel collecting another clean sheet, saving 3.7 goals above expected in four playoff contests this year, with just two goals conceded in the post-season.
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Yamane, Garces, Yoshida, Nelson; Delgado, Cerrillo, Fagundez; Pec, Joveljic, Paintsil
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; D. Nealis, Reyes, S. Nealis; Harper, Edelman, Stroud, Tolkin; Forsberg; Vanzeir, Morgan
We say: Los Angeles Galaxy 0-1 New York Red Bulls
Even without Puig, the Galaxy will be heavy favourites for this clash, though we expect they will be left frustrated against a side with tremendous resolve who are more than comfortable hanging back.
The Red Bulls are peaking at the right time, and their outstanding goalkeeping should keep them alive on Saturday, while they have been clinical when needed in the playoffs, which is why we project them to pull off what could go down as the biggest upset in the history of the MLS Cup finals.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
body check tags ::
Previews by email
