Osasuna have the fourth-best home record in La Liga this season, losing just one of their eight matches, and we are finding it very difficult to predict anything other than a routine home success here; Coudet needs time to change things at Alaves, but he could be staring at another defeat this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (10.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
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