Real Madrid are not expected to be at full-strength for this match, and Real Sociedad away is always a tough match regardless of their form and position in the table. We can see the points being shared in this match, which would not be the end of the world for Real Madrid, who will want to get through the contest unscathed ahead of their huge fixture against Bayern.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 2-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
-0.4) 
0.04) 
