SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Manchester City |
44.24% ( 0.16) | 23.91% ( 0.01) | 31.84% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 60.37% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.28% ( -0.14) | 41.71% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.88% ( -0.15) | 64.12% ( 0.15) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.9% ( 0.01) | 19.1% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.28% ( 0.02) | 50.72% ( -0.02) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.63% ( -0.18) | 25.37% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.83% ( -0.25) | 60.17% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.67% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.08% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.43% ( -0)Other @ 3.31% Total : 44.24% | 1-1 @ 11% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.45% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.54% Total : 31.84% |
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