SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 51.79%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
51.79% ( 0.2) | 22.15% ( 0.04) | 26.06% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 62.53% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.93% ( -0.43) | 37.07% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.73% ( -0.47) | 59.26% ( 0.47) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.48% ( -0.09) | 14.52% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.45% ( -0.17) | 42.55% ( 0.17) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.15% ( -0.4) | 26.85% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.85% ( -0.53) | 62.15% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.25% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.32% Total : 51.79% | 1-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.15% | 1-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.13% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.14% Total : 26.06% |
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