SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 70.5%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Drogheda United had a probability of 10.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.19%) and 3-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.85%), while for a Drogheda United win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | Drogheda United |
70.5% ( 0.21) | 18.79% ( -0.05) | 10.71% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 42.85% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.2% ( -0.16) | 47.8% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.02% ( -0.14) | 69.99% ( 0.15) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.68% ( 0.02) | 12.33% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.88% ( 0.03) | 38.13% ( -0.02) |
| Drogheda United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.87% ( -0.38) | 51.13% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.57% ( -0.25) | 85.43% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | Drogheda United |
| 2-0 @ 13.81% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 13.19% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 9.64% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.47% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.42% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.87% Total : 70.5% | 1-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.53% Total : 18.79% | 0-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.1% Total : 10.71% |
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