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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for St Patrick's Athletic had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest St Patrick's Athletic win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Patrick's Athletic | Draw | Derry City |
31.13% ( 0.1) | 28.31% ( 0.37) | 40.56% ( -0.47) |
| Both teams to score 46.1% ( -1.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.02% ( -1.28) | 59.97% ( 1.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.78% ( -0.99) | 80.22% ( 0.98) |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.92% ( -0.61) | 35.07% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.18% ( -0.64) | 71.82% ( 0.64) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.01% ( -0.88) | 28.99% ( 0.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.11% ( -1.1) | 64.88% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Patrick's Athletic | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 2.41% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.95% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.13% Total : 31.13% | 1-1 @ 13.19% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 10.16% ( 0.47)2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.3% | 0-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.61% Total : 40.55% |
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