SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for St Patrick's Athletic had a probability of 17.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a St Patrick's Athletic win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
59.12% ( 0.03) | 23.03% ( -0.02) | 17.85% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.97% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.15% ( 0.05) | 50.84% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.27% ( 0.05) | 72.73% ( -0.05) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.12% ( 0.03) | 16.87% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.1% ( 0.06) | 46.9% ( -0.06) |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.71% ( 0.02) | 42.29% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.31% ( 0.01) | 78.69% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 12.69% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 11.29% 2-1 @ 9.72% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.7% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.48% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.1% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 59.11% | 1-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.18% ( 0)Other @ 0.78% Total : 23.02% | 0-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.7% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.64% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.35% 2-3 @ 1.2% ( 0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 17.85% |
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