Newport appear to have a knack of picking up wins in the early stages of this season, and given they have two wins from two at Rodney Parade so far, we would expect them to keep up their home form and take all three points at the expense of a Port Vale side that come into this game winless in three league outings.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
-0.7) 
0.77) 
