Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 35.75%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.54%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stevenage in this match.
-0.17) 
0.02) 
