Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Barrow had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Barrow win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
-0.46) 
0.59) 
