SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Harrogate Town | 9 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Newport County | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Crawley Town | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 21 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | -6 | 8 |
| 22 | Forest Green Rovers | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 9 | -10 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 36.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Forest Green Rovers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
36.56% ( 0.08) | 25.32% ( -0.01) | 38.12% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 56.59% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.85% ( 0.06) | 47.15% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.61% ( 0.05) | 69.38% ( -0.05) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.8% ( 0.07) | 25.2% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.07% ( 0.1) | 59.93% ( -0.1) |
| Forest Green Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.66% ( -0.01) | 24.34% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.26% ( -0.02) | 58.74% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
| 1-0 @ 8.46% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.76% Total : 36.56% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.98% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 1.9% Total : 38.12% |
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