Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 48.2%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.95%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
