SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 51.13%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 25.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
25.57% ( 0.92) | 23.3% ( 0.05) | 51.13% ( -0.98) |
| Both teams to score 57.93% ( 0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.08% ( 0.6) | 42.92% ( -0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.68% ( 0.59) | 65.32% ( -0.59) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.68% ( 1.06) | 30.32% ( -1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.49% ( 1.25) | 66.51% ( -1.25) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.14% ( -0.14) | 16.86% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.12% ( -0.24) | 46.88% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.18) 1-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.02% Total : 25.57% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.3% | 1-2 @ 9.67% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.29)1-3 @ 5.74% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 4.81% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 3.42% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 2.55% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.14% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.18% Total : 51.13% |
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