SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 55.46%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 22.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (5.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
55.46% ( -1.76) | 22.23% ( 0.44) | 22.31% ( 1.32) |
| Both teams to score 57.71% ( 0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.58% ( -0.34) | 41.42% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.18% ( -0.35) | 63.82% ( 0.35) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.17% ( -0.67) | 14.83% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.86% ( -1.31) | 43.14% ( 1.31) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.76% ( 1.02) | 32.23% ( -1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.27% ( 1.14) | 68.73% ( -1.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 9.12% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.29)3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.33)3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.22)4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.94% Total : 55.46% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.23% | 1-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.27) 0-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.23)0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.51% Total : 22.31% |
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