SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 33.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
41.67% ( 1.36) | 25.1% ( -0.47) | 33.23% ( -0.88) |
| Both teams to score 56.74% ( 1.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.3% ( 1.9) | 46.7% ( -1.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.03% ( 1.75) | 68.97% ( -1.75) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.65% ( 1.5) | 22.35% ( -1.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.17% ( 2.2) | 55.83% ( -2.2) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.07% ( 0.38) | 26.93% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.74% ( 0.49) | 62.27% ( -0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.28)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.31% Total : 41.67% | 1-1 @ 11.83% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.49)2-2 @ 5.81% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.1% | 0-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.56) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.31)1-3 @ 3.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 33.23% |
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