SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 1-2 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Barry Town United |
44.18% ( 0.15) | 23.96% ( 0.15) | 31.85% ( -0.3) |
| Both teams to score 60.2% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.05% ( -0.84) | 41.95% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.64% ( -0.85) | 64.35% ( 0.84) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.78% ( -0.28) | 19.22% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.08% ( -0.46) | 50.91% ( 0.45) |
| Barry Town United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.52% ( -0.59) | 25.48% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.68% ( -0.81) | 60.32% ( 0.8) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Barry Town United |
| 2-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.08% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.51% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.27% Total : 44.18% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 4.9% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.96% | 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.51% Total : 31.85% |
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