SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
43.2% ( 1.59) | 24.89% ( -0.04) | 31.91% ( -1.56) |
| Both teams to score 56.99% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.83% ( -0.32) | 46.16% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.54% ( -0.3) | 68.46% ( 0.3) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.6% ( 0.61) | 21.4% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.61% ( 0.93) | 54.39% ( -0.93) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.5% ( -1.13) | 27.5% ( 1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37% ( -1.47) | 63% ( 1.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 7% ( 0.34)3-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.24)3-2 @ 3% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.54% Total : 43.2% | 1-1 @ 11.71% 0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.89% | 0-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 7.56% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.18)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.93% Total : 31.91% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
