SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberystwyth Town win with a probability of 41.65%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aberystwyth Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
41.65% ( -0.01) | 24.4% ( 0) | 33.95% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.44% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.72% ( -0.01) | 43.28% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.32% ( -0.01) | 65.68% ( 0.01) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.11% ( -0.01) | 20.89% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.4% ( -0.01) | 53.6% ( 0.01) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( 0) | 24.87% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.53% ( 0.01) | 59.47% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.37% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.32% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.22% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.81% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 41.66% | 1-1 @ 11.32% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.17% 0-0 @ 5.2% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.4% | 1-2 @ 7.88% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.23% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.03% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.65% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.86% 0-3 @ 2.33% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.27% 2-4 @ 1% Other @ 2.7% Total : 33.95% |
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