Milan have won eight of 10 home games in Serie A so far, conceding just five goals in the process, and they should overcome a Bologna side that have started to stutter. The Rossoblu may be a little rusty, too, having had an unexpected two-week hiatus, so their former boss Stefano Pioli is set to see off the challenge of Thiago Motta.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 50.51%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 25.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Bologna win was 0-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
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