SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 2-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Bahia |
35.81% ( 1.06) | 24.51% ( 0.47) | 39.67% ( -1.53) |
| Both teams to score 59.41% ( -1.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.52% ( -2.07) | 43.48% ( 2.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.13% ( -2.06) | 65.87% ( 2.06) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.08% ( -0.37) | 23.91% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.87% ( -0.54) | 58.13% ( 0.54) |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.08% ( -1.61) | 21.91% ( 1.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.82% ( -2.51) | 55.18% ( 2.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| America Mineiro | Draw | Bahia |
| 2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.59)2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.36)3-1 @ 3.88% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 2.56% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.06% Total : 35.81% | 1-1 @ 11.38% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.46)3-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.51% | 1-2 @ 8.64% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.34)0-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.37% ( -0.3)2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.17)1-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.2)2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.48% Total : 39.67% |
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