Both teams will head into the weekend with a degree of confidence and the need for a result against a relegation rival, and we anticipate a tight contest.
The appointment of Daniel Sousa clearly had a positive effect on Arouca as they dished out a 4-0 beating in their first game under the new boss last weekend, and we fancy them to make it two in a row and come out on top on home turf.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.06) 
