SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 85.88%. A draw had a probability of 9.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 4.46%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 4-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.55%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (1.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Luton Town |
85.88% ( 0.08) | 9.66% ( -0) | 4.46% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 44.73% ( -0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.68% ( -0.47) | 27.32% ( 0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.11% ( -0.59) | 47.89% ( 0.59) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.69% ( -0.06) | 4.31% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 82.13% ( -0.21) | 17.87% ( 0.21) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.75% ( -0.71) | 53.25% ( 0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.19% ( -0.46) | 86.81% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Luton Town |
| 3-0 @ 11.89% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 11.34% ( 0.21)4-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.17)2-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 3.08% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.07)6-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.06)7-0 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.18% Total : 85.87% | 1-1 @ 4.55% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.56% Total : 9.66% | 0-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.58% Total : 4.46% |
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