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Premier League | Gameweek 30
Mar 31, 2024 at 4.30pm UK
Etihad Stadium
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Man City
0 - 0
Arsenal

 
FT

Jesus (67'), Raya (79')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.72%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.85%) and 1-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Manchester CityDrawArsenal
53.72% (-1.219 -1.22) 21.14% (0.556 0.56) 25.14% (0.661 0.66)
Both teams to score 65.3% (-1.342 -1.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.97% (-2.058 -2.06)33.02% (2.056 2.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.25% (-2.402 -2.4)54.75% (2.4 2.4)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.47% (-1.025 -1.03)12.53% (1.025 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.44% (-2.172 -2.17)38.55% (2.17 2.17)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.65% (-0.65300000000001 -0.65)25.34% (0.652 0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.87% (-0.906 -0.91)60.13% (0.905 0.91)
Score Analysis
    Manchester City 53.72%
    Arsenal 25.14%
    Draw 21.14%
Manchester CityDrawArsenal
2-1 @ 9.4% (0.113 0.11)
2-0 @ 6.85% (0.208 0.21)
1-0 @ 6.6% (0.453 0.45)
3-1 @ 6.51% (-0.186 -0.19)
3-0 @ 4.74% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 4.47% (-0.215 -0.22)
4-1 @ 3.38% (-0.239 -0.24)
4-0 @ 2.46% (-0.125 -0.13)
4-2 @ 2.32% (-0.212 -0.21)
5-1 @ 1.4% (-0.162 -0.16)
4-3 @ 1.06% (-0.119 -0.12)
5-0 @ 1.02% (-0.096 -0.1)
5-2 @ 0.96% (-0.131 -0.13)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 53.72%
1-1 @ 9.05% (0.462 0.46)
2-2 @ 6.45% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.18% (0.335 0.34)
3-3 @ 2.05% (-0.139 -0.14)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 21.14%
1-2 @ 6.21% (0.204 0.2)
0-1 @ 4.36% (0.385 0.39)
0-2 @ 2.99% (0.212 0.21)
2-3 @ 2.95% (-0.076 -0.08)
1-3 @ 2.84% (0.041 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.37% (0.073 0.07)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.046 -0.05)
1-4 @ 0.98% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 25.14%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Man City 2-0 Newcastle
Saturday, March 16 at 5.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Liverpool 1-1 Man City
Sunday, March 10 at 3.45pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-1 Copenhagen
Wednesday, March 6 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 3-1 Man Utd
Sunday, March 3 at 3.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 2-6 Man City
Tuesday, February 27 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man City
Saturday, February 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 1-0 Porto (4-2 pen.)
Tuesday, March 12 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Arsenal 2-1 Brentford
Saturday, March 9 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Sheff Utd 0-6 Arsenal
Monday, March 4 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle
Saturday, February 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Porto 1-0 Arsenal
Wednesday, February 21 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Burnley 0-5 Arsenal
Saturday, February 17 at 3pm in Premier League


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