Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.72%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 25.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.85%) and 1-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
53.72% ( -1.22) | 21.14% ( 0.56) | 25.14% ( 0.66) |
Both teams to score 65.3% ( -1.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.97% ( -2.06) | 33.02% ( 2.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.25% ( -2.4) | 54.75% ( 2.4) |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.47% ( -1.03) | 12.53% ( 1.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.44% ( -2.17) | 38.55% ( 2.17) |
Arsenal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.65% ( -0.65) | 25.34% ( 0.65) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.87% ( -0.91) | 60.13% ( 0.91) |
Score Analysis |
Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.21) 1-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.45) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.24) 4-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.21) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.16) 4-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.1) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.54% Total : 53.72% | 1-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.34) 3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.41% Total : 21.14% | 1-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.39) 0-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.21) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 25.14% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups: