SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 59.75%. A win for Bournemouth had a probability of 20.4% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.73%) and 3-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Bournemouth win was 1-2 (5.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Bournemouth |
59.75% ( -0.01) | 19.85% ( 0.01) | 20.4% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63.45% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.38% ( -0.02) | 32.61% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.72% ( -0.02) | 54.28% ( 0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.25% ( -0.01) | 10.75% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.27% ( -0.02) | 34.72% ( 0.02) |
| Bournemouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.09% ( -0.01) | 28.9% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.22% ( -0.01) | 64.78% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Bournemouth |
| 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.73% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.93% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.75% 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.98% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.2% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.47% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.77% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.43% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 3.23% Total : 59.75% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.95% 0-0 @ 3.11% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0)Other @ 0.36% Total : 19.85% | 1-2 @ 5.34% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.86% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.46% 0-2 @ 2.39% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.15% Total : 20.4% |
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