SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 46.16%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
46.16% ( -0.45) | 22.59% ( 0.37) | 31.24% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 64.94% ( -1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.41% ( -1.8) | 35.59% ( 1.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.35% ( -2.02) | 57.65% ( 2.01) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.07% ( -0.85) | 15.93% ( 0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.81% ( -1.58) | 45.19% ( 1.57) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.24% ( -0.83) | 22.75% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.56% ( -1.25) | 56.44% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.4)2-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.15)4-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.08)4-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.92% Total : 46.16% | 1-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.32)3-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.59% | 1-2 @ 7.3% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.35)0-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.19% Total : 31.24% |
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