Rayo have proven to be difficult to beat this season, and Athletic will be under no illusions of the size of the task facing them this weekend. We are expecting a very close match on Saturday but believe that Athletic's quality in the forward positions will allow them to secure a vital three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
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