Rayo are a tricky team to beat, and this is unlikely to be a straightforward match for Real Madrid. The hosts were excellent in the second half against Barcelona, though, and we are expecting them to navigate their way to another three points in Spain's top flight.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 62.35%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 16.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
-3.79) 
1.1) 
