Atletico have gone over a year without losing a competitive game at the Metropolitano, and having won 11 of their last 13 home matches against Athletic, we think that the hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory in the first leg of the semi-final tie.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
-0.31) 
0.11) 
