SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 62.27%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 17.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.98%) and 1-0 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Atletico Madrid win it was 1-2 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
62.27% ( 5.12) | 19.77% ( -0.5) | 17.96% ( -4.62) |
| Both teams to score 59.09% ( -6.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.76% ( -4.56) | 36.24% ( 4.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.64% ( -5.17) | 58.36% ( 5.18) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.82% ( -0.04) | 11.18% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.32% ( -0.09) | 35.68% ( 0.1) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.53% ( -6.95) | 33.47% ( 6.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.9% ( -8.39) | 70.1% ( 8.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 8.98% ( 1.87)1-0 @ 8.2% ( 1.72)3-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.27)3-0 @ 6.56% ( 1.36)4-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.66)4-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.74)4-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.36)5-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.32)5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.67% Total : 62.27% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.37) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.89)0-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.79)3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.6)Other @ 0.24% Total : 19.77% | 1-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.8) 0-1 @ 4.1% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.36)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.81)1-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.74)Other @ 2.96% Total : 17.96% |
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