This has all of the makings of a cracking match, but we are finding it difficult to separate them. Atletico are the favourites on home soil, but Simeone's side have so many injury problems, especially at the back, and we are expecting Real Sociedad to be good enough for a point this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.6%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 25.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Real Sociedad win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.38) 
