It is almost 13 years since Valencia last beat Atletico away in the league, so it is very difficult to back them to win this game even considering their strong form. Atletico's home record this season has been excellent, meanwhile, and we are expecting Simeone's side to edge a close game here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 20.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.8) 
-0.36) 
