Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.44) 
-0.22) 
