Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
