SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 53.77%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 23.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
53.77% ( -0.05) | 22.75% ( 0.03) | 23.48% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 57.45% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.53% ( -0.07) | 42.47% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.12% ( -0.07) | 64.88% ( 0.08) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.23% ( -0.04) | 15.77% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.11% ( -0.08) | 44.89% ( 0.09) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.2% ( -0.01) | 31.8% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.77% ( -0.01) | 68.23% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.55% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.79% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 3.55% Total : 53.77% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.75% | 1-2 @ 6.08% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 2.64% Total : 23.48% |
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