Bologna have failed to make the most of their opportunities so far, and are yet to score from 48 attempts; meanwhile, Lille have posted some excellent results despite taking only half as many shots.
The difference is clearly in the final third, then, and the combined powers of David and Zhegrova will be too much for the home side to withstand.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Lille had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Lille win was 0-1 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Lille in this match.
0.1) 
-0.23) 
