SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.75%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.41% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (5.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
55.75% ( -1.29) | 19.84% ( 0.07) | 24.41% ( 1.22) |
| Both teams to score 69.46% ( 1.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.67% ( 1.06) | 27.33% ( -1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.09% ( 1.32) | 47.91% ( -1.33) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.88% ( 0.01) | 10.12% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.69% ( 0.03) | 33.31% ( -0.04) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.29% ( 1.46) | 22.71% ( -1.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.63% ( 2.13) | 56.37% ( -2.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
| 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.39)1-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.3)4-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.17)5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.09)5-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.84% Total : 55.75% | 1-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.16)0-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.61% Total : 19.84% | 1-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.11)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.12% Total : 24.41% |
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