Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (10.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leganes would win this match.