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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 50.67%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 25.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Newtown AFC |
50.67% ( 0.15) | 23.4% ( -0.01) | 25.93% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 57.94% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.93% ( -0.12) | 43.07% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.53% ( -0.11) | 65.47% ( 0.11) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.91% ( 0.01) | 17.09% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.71% ( 0.02) | 47.29% ( -0.03) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.88% ( -0.18) | 30.12% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.74% ( -0.21) | 66.26% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0)Other @ 3.99% Total : 50.67% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.4% | 1-2 @ 6.55% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.09% Total : 25.93% |
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