Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 26.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
-0.35) 
0.44) 
